It seems that the stock markets are rallying in Helsinki.
The positive things are:
1. Real estates markets have been recovering from fall 2008 slightly (however, usually people buy more real estates in spring than in fall in Northern countries).
2. Interest rates are historicallly low (12 month euribor 1,802 %).
3. Oil price around 45-55 USD/barrels compared with the highs a year ago.
4. Gold has dropped slightly - a sign that some of the investors are more willing to take risk than just a few months ago
However, macro data doesn't seem good. The DEFICIT of Finland's balance of trade was 79 millions euros in January 2009. The unemployment rate is in a rising trend as well.
I would suggest to be careful into getting to stock markets on the days when the indexes are rising 1,5%+.
Major of my investments are still in metals and cash. I do have opened a bearish position that will expire in December 2009.
In order to go back to stock markets I will waite a few more months and look how does the situation look like. Markets are still highly volatile which means that there is no clear trend.
To predict inflation you need to predict the acts of European Central Bank because the money supply is controlled by it. This makes it difficult to predict the future inflation.
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